Economy

The Fed's Favored Wage Growth Measure Accelerates

The Q1 US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated at a faster-than-expected 1.2% q/q rate, from 0.9% q/q in Q4. On a year-on-year basis, it rose by 4.2% in Q1 and follows a similar annual increase in the previous quarter. The Fed is not expected to cut rates…

2 years ago

Essentials

Mixed Messages From Chinese PMIs

The Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, below the previous month’s number of 53 and below expectations of 52.2. Moreover, the NBS manufacturing PMI also decreased to (a better-than-expected) 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March. Meanwhile, the…

2 years ago

Essentials

Domestic And Global Headwinds Weigh On Chinese Profits

Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative to March 2023. Weak domestic…

2 years ago

Essentials

German Inflation Continues To Show Some Strength

A few preliminary measures of German inflation for April were released on Monday. The month-on-month headline inflation measure came in at 0.5% an increase from last month’s reading of 0.4% but below expectations of 0.6%. Meanwhile the year-on-year version…

2 years ago

Essentials

Trimmed Mean PCE: Disinflation Is No Longer Broadening

The trimmed mean PCE was released on Friday by the Dallas Fed. This measure removes the top 31% of items with the highest inflation and the bottom 25% of items with the lowest inflation within the PCE basket. Historically, it has served as an accurate gauge…

2 years ago

Essentials

Could the Euro Be Set For A Rebound?

EUR/USD has fallen by almost 5% since July last year. There are fundamental reasons why this move has taken place. The US economy has shown significant more resilience than the European one. Consumption continues to be strong, and GDP is still growing at a…

2 years ago

Essentials

May FOMC Preview

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the May FOMC meeting is unlikely to cause a stir in fixed income markets. The Fed will hold an FOMC meeting next week and while it will not update its economic or interest rate projections, we will be on…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The Big Bank Beige Book, April 2024

The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.

2 years ago

FICCCoreMacro

The Golden Rule Of Investing In Euro Area Inflation-Linked Bonds

Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce our Euro Inflation-Linked Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in Euro Area inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal government bonds should outperform inflation-linked bonds over the next year as disinflation in the Euro Area continues.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Peak Divergence

Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?

2 years ago

Economy

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